Gem City Sports Network

March Madness is fast approaching, and everyone is obsessing over who’s going to make the field of 68. Everyone and their mother seems to have their own bracketology page nowadays. And while a lot can happen between now and selection Sunday, it’s still fun to speculate.

Once the bracket is in place though, the fun part is dissecting and predicting exactly what’s going to happen. Bracket analysis shows everywhere and family and office pools run rampant. You can’t miss it! This is where I come in.

Recently, I learned the black science/art of Machine Learning. It’s a form of Artificial Intelligence that gets a computer to do something without specifically programming it to do so. There are tons of examples of this everywhere. But I figured I’d put this newfound knowledge to something more pointless and fun. Namely, taking said NCAA bracket and using machine learning to pick the bracket!

How it works:
Machine Learning is largely based on data. It basically recognizes patterns with numbers (stats and rankings) to predict an outcome (the scores). I’ve trained my program on NCAA tournaments from 2008 to 2015, and tested this program against the 2016 tournament with amazingly accurate results. I then took this program and gave it the bracket from ESPN’s bracketology published on February 23rd, along with the current season stats and rankings.

DISCLAIMER:
The rankings and results were calculated on Satuday, February 25th, before Gonzaga’s loss, among others.

Summary:
The biggest shock here is that there aren’t any projected upsets in the first round. Not even a 9 seed beat an 8 seed. The closest we got to a real upset in the first round is #10 Michigan State falling to #7 South Carolina and #10 USC falling to Maryland by four points each. The second round did see #6 St. Mary’s defeat defeat #3 Butler, but that’s pretty much it.

Also of note is that all #1 seeds make it to the Final Four. Boring from a fan’s perspective, but it should mean quality basketball in the final rounds. But that’s the theory.

In area action, #8 Datyon defeats #9 Michigan by 4 points before going down to #1 Gonzaga by 11. #8 Xavier edges #9 VCU by one point before falling to #1 North Carolina in the second round. #5 Cincinnati handles #12 Illinois State by 9, then goes down to #4 Purdue by two.

Overall, the sim has #1 Gonzaga making it to the title somewhat comfortably, however it will be interesting to see how Gonzaga’s recent lass to BYU, which wasn’t figured into this sim (the loss came after these projections were calculated), will affect them later.

Complete results (Based on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology picks):

First Four
(11) Seton Hall defeats (11) Texas Christian (67-66)
(16) North Carolina Central defeats (16) Mount St. Mary’s (70-63)
(12) Illinois State defeats (12) Georgia Tech (64-59)
(16) New Orleans defeats (16) Texas Southern (71-66)

First Round
(1) North Carolina defeats (16) New Orleans (85-57)
(8) Xavier defeats (9) Virginia Commonwealth (67-66)
(5) Southern Methodist defeats (12) Nevada (75-61)
(4) UCLA defeats (13) Belmont (84-68)
(6) Saint Mary’s (CA) defeats (11) University of California (60-49)
(3) Butler defeats (14) Valparaiso (75-64)
(7) Minnesota defeats (10) Syracuse (75-68)
(2) Baylor defeats (15) Florida Gulf Coast (75-56)

(1) Gonzaga defeats (16) UC-Irvine (84-45)
(8) Dayton defeats (9) Michigan (67-63)
(5) Virginia defeats (12) Texas-Arlington (64-54)
(4) West Virginia defeats (13) Vermont (75-62)
(6) Creighton defeats (11) Middle Tennessee (71-66)
(3) Florida State defeats (14) North Carolina-Asheville (80-66)
(7) South Carolina defeats (10) Michigan State (65-61)
(2) Oregon defeats (15) Cal State Bakersfield (74-54)

(1) Villanova defeats (16) North Carolina Central (80-50)
(8) Miami (FL) defeats (9) Northwestern (65-60)
(5) Cincinnati defeats (12) Illinois State (67-58)
(4) Purdue defeats (13) Monmouth (81-68)
(6) Oklahoma State defeats (11) Marquette (80-73)
(3) Florida defeats (14) East Tennessee State (78-61)
(7) Maryland defeats (10) Southern California (74-70)
(2) Louisville defeats (15) Bucknell (77-58)

(1) Kansas defeats (16) North Dakota (90-56)
(8) Wichita State defeats (9) Virginia Tech (74-68)
(5) Wisconsin defeats (12) North Carolina-Wilmington (77-65)
(4) Duke defeats (13) Princeton (73-57)
(6) Notre Dame defeats (11) Seton Hall (73-67)
(3) Kentucky defeats (14) Akron (85-66)
(7) Iowa State defeats (10) Arkansas (79-73)
(2) Arizona defeats (15) North Dakota State (80-55)

Second Round
(1) North Carolina defeats (8) Xavier (78-67)
(4) UCLA defeats (5) Southern Methodist (72-71)
(6) Saint Mary’s (CA) defeats (3) Butler (61-58)
(2) Baylor defeats (7) Minnesota (69-62)

(1) Gonzaga defeats (8) Dayton (77-56)
(4) West Virginia defeats (5) Virginia (64-59)
(3) Florida State defeats (6) Creighton (76-74)
(2) Oregon defeats (7) South Carolina (71-63)

(1) Villanova defeats (8) Miami (FL) (66-57)
(4) Purdue defeats (5) Cincinnati (68-66)
(3) Florida defeats (6) Oklahoma State (77-71)
(2) Louisville defeats (7) Maryland (71-64)

(1) Kansas defeats (8) Wichita State (76-67)
(4) Duke defeats (5) Wisconsin (67-66)
(3) Kentucky defeats (6) Notre Dame (79-74)
(2) Arizona defeats (7) Iowa State (73-67)

Sweet Sixteen
(1) North Carolina defeats (4) UCLA (80-78)
(2) Baylor defeats (6) Saint Mary’s (CA) (56-53)

(1) Gonzaga defeats (4) West Virginia (77-64)
(2) Oregon defeats (3) Florida State (74-69)

(1) Villanova defeats (4) Purdue (68-64)
(3) Florida defeats (2) Louisville (70-67)

(1) Kansas defeats (4) Duke (76-69)
(2) Arizona defeats (3) Kentucky (73-72)

Elite Eight
(1) North Carolina defeats (2) Baylor (70-68)
(1) Gonzaga defeats (2) Oregon (75-62)
(1) Villanova defeats (3) Florida (67-66)
(1) Kansas defeats (2) Arizona (71-67)

Final Four
(1) Gonzaga defeats (1) Kansas (75-67)
(1) Villanova defeats (1) North Carolina (72-71)

Championship
(1) Gonzaga defeats (1) Villanova (71-61)